USD: A quiet day before the storm? – ING

A short bullish run at the start of this week waned Tuesday and Wednesday overnight. It’s a symptom of the market's caution on risk assets ahead of the French vote on Sunday, ING's FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes. 

Stillness is in the air before the weed ends

“Today is a quiet day in markets ahead of the busy latter part of the week, which also includes the first Biden-Trump debate tomorrow. Data releases this week have so far failed to convey any compelling story in US macro.

“Today’s data calendar is light in the US, and there are no scheduled Fed speakers. Yesterday, Michelle Bowman’s call for no cuts in 2024 confirmed her position as the most hawkish member of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Market pricing continues to hover around 45-50bp of easing by year-end.”

“We retain a moderately bullish bias on the US Dollar (USD) for today and tomorrow on the back of this, although the core PCE event on Friday may well prove to be a catalyst for Fed’s dovish repricing and some dollar weakness.”