EUR: French election and US PCE to guide the EUR/USD – ING

EUR/USD is trading close to 1.07 following a soft session for risk sentiment on Tuesday, ING’s analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Rehn gives a nudge to market doves

“The OAT:Bund 10-year spread continues to hover around 75-80bp, which may well be the level at which it will approach the French election on Sunday. A poll of polls by Bloomberg published yesterday sees a widening of Marine Le Pen National Rally’s lead to over 35% with the leftist New Popular Front alliance stable at 28%.”

“ECB official Olli Rehn sounded relatively dovish in an interview this morning, saying that market pricing for two more rate cuts in 2024 looked ‘reasonable’. While investors aren’t hugely hinging on ECB communication at the current juncture, Rehn’s words were a signal of tolerance towards inflation bumps, which is a euro negative.”

“Still, EUR/USD price action into the weekend will be determined by French election positioning and Friday’s US PCE. We have a bias for a weakening in the pair today and tomorrow back to June’s lows (1.0670), before a rebound on Friday on encouraging PCE figures”.